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Potash Stocks Win Today: Potash Corp. and Mosaic

Submitted by John Darcy on Tue, 10/06/2009 - 15:51.
in
Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT)

Despite Mosaic Co. (NYSE:MOS) reporting that Q1 profit fell 92% yesterday, thanks to a declining dollar and the commodity upswing, both Potash Corp (NYSE:POT) and Mosaic shares are up 3%+.

Major equities are moving higher today thanks to the media painting the picture that the world economy is improving but that could be just momentum pushing up the Dow and S&P 500 for the second day.  Regardless, looking into potash companies at this point when potash demand to return to “normal” by the second half of its fiscal 2010 is worth investors attention.  Now that Mosaic has reported Q3 earnings, Potash Corp. is up next on Oct 22nd, but do you get in before the call?

Mosaic missed estimates yesterday, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had predicted a profit of 35 cents per share on revenue of $1.54 billion.

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) reported earnings of $100.6 million, or 23 cents per share, for the three-month period ending Aug. 31. That’s down from $1.18 billion, or $2.65 per share, for the same period last year.  The company’s revenue fell 66 percent to $1.46 billion from $4.32 billion the same period last year.

The big issue with building a position in Potash Corp. before Oct 22nd is should the market see a correction shares could fall hard, however POT shares are down 4% from its 200-day moving average and -3% from its 50-day moving average.

POTASH CORPLOWERED EXPECTATIONS 
Keep in mind that back on Sept 21st, Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) cut its 2009 earnings guidance due to "lower than forecasted potash sales volumes" stemming from "slow demand and limited restocking by fertilizer distributors around the world." The fertilizer company now forecasts earnings between $3.25 and $3.75 per share, down from an earlier forecast of $4 to $5 per share. The company also expects third-quarter, per-share earnings to hit at the low end of its determined range between 80 cents and $1.20. The consensus estimate calls for 93 cents per share.

For Potash Corp. shareholders, lowered expectations could work in their favor should the Q3 earnings call go over well with Wall Street.

Quick look at Potash Corp. and Mosaic shares:

Name Ticker Last price Mkt cap Avg vol 52wk high 52wk low EPS P/E Beta
 
Potash Corp./Saskatchewa... POT 88.84 26.28B 6.49M 121.3581 47.54 7.86 11.30 1.22
The Mosaic Company MOS 47.91 21.31B 5.17M 59.34 21.94 5.27 9.10 1.20

Potash Corp Of Saskatchewan
$ 88.92
POT
3.13

Short Interest (Shares Short)
5,735,000

Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio)
0.9

Short Percent of Float
1.95 %

Short Interest - Prior
5,944,700

Short % Increase / Decrease
-3.53 %

Short Squeeze Ranking™
-0

% From 52-Wk High ($ 121.36 )
-36.48 %

% From 52-Wk Low ($ 47.54 )
46.54 %

% From 200-Day MA ($ 94.32 )
-6.07 %

% From 50-Day MA ($ 91.63 )
-3.05 %

Price % Change (52-Week)
-10.00 %

 

The Mosaic Company
$ 48.02
MOS
2.06

Short Interest (Shares Short)
5,547,600

Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio)
1.1

Short Percent of Float
3.50 %

Short Interest - Prior
5,429,600

Short % Increase / Decrease
2.17 %

Short Squeeze Ranking™
0

% From 52-Wk High ($ 59.34 )
-23.58 %

% From 52-Wk Low ($ 21.94 )
54.31 %

% From 200-Day MA ($ 48.55 )
-1.11 %

% From 50-Day MA ($ 51.05 )
-6.31 %

Price % Change (52-Week)
12.40 %

Disclaimer: No positions in POT or MOS.

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