What's happening with IMAX Corp. shares?
Submitted by Frank Lara Jr. on Mon, 11/24/2008 - 14:23.
After IMAX Corporation (NASDAQ:IMAX) landed a five-picture agreement with Walt Disney Studios (DIS) it seemed like the turning point for IMAX shareholders. Yet over the last 5 days shares have dropped 25% and are pennies above their 52-week low in the mid $2 range, what gives?
Just last Wednesday Imax landed a Blockbuster Deal With Disney.
Disney's "A Christmas Carol," a 3-D version of the Charles Dickens classic, will be shown as a 2009 holiday release. Actor Jim Carrey will star in the Robert Zemeckis film, the first from the Walt Disney Studios slated for Imax.
"Entering into a five-picture agreement with Walt Disney Studios helps us ensure that our network has an outstanding slate of movies going forward," Imax co-Chairmen and co-CEOs Richard Gelfond and Bradley Wechsler said in a prepared statement.
The company earlier this month announced revenue grew 13%, led by the strong performance of "The Dark Knight" at Imax theaters. Although it still lost 5 cents a share, due mostly to the cost of its debt service, that was better than Street estimates and achieved an operating margin of 8%, compared with negative 10% in the prior-year quarter.
"During the quarter, we feel we demonstrated that the key drivers of our business -- our transition to digital, our transition to a recurring cash flow joint revenue sharing model and our ability to finance the roll-out of our digital systems -- are fundamentally on track," the top executives said in a prepared statement released Nov. 6. "In a difficult environment, we delivered improved financial results, which primarily reflect the strength of 'The Dark Knight: The IMAX Experience,' coupled with operating expenses that were flat versus last year."
Jeffrey Blaeser, an analyst with Morgan Joseph, wrote Nov. 7 that the ongoing transition to digital projection creates a backlog for Imax that should insulate the company from ongoing broader economic woes.
As the industry shifts, he added that momentum will help drive revenue through stronger offerings.
"While there will always be underperforming releases, Imax's apparently increasing exposure is delivering more high-profile titles and limiting its exposure to underperforming releases," he wrote. "Whereas 'Speed Racer' and 'Shine a Light' may have cost Imax money in 2008 (factoring in the roughly $1million cost to convert a film to Imax), we currently see few weak links in the 2009 schedule. Longer term, should Imax release 10 to 12 films per year, exposure to such releases should be limited."
Right now if you try and buy shares of IMAX on Scottrade you have to call your broker to execute the trade, they want to know who's buying. Makes you wonder.
The short float is only at 4.2%, every other stock is up today yet Imax and a few others won't move, why?
What is going on with IMAX shares that the investing public doesn't know about?
Is it just fear or is there something else going on?
Anytime I can't buy a given security freely and I'm forced to call to execute a trade it makes me stop and think, what is going on that I don't know about?
With the holiday season coming people flock to the movies, and Imax is going to cash in, but if the share price doesn't agree with that, plus the Disney bonus, why buy?
SOURCE: http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/stock-picks-ace-pvh-imax/?afl=yahoo
Discliamer: No positions in any of the securities mentioned in this publication.
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Imax
It seems this company has been poorly managed over it's history and I suppose a lot of the old believers have been let down so many times they can't buy into it any more. So, only new money doesn't feel the pain of their history. These days the market is all about buying (if you are buying) stocks that you can put in a drawyer and forget about for awhile. Companies with big possibilities yet drenched with uncertainty are just not in vogue.
Imax's strategy is somewhat risky in the sense that they are taking on higher risk to invite the possibility of higher future returns.
Again, this kind of situation is just not what today's investors are looking for. On the other hand, I would argue that this risk can be somewhat discounted at this point, given the IMAX technology and business could be attractive to someone better financed as total price tag is not so high at todays stock price $117 million + $180 million in debt. But they are better off as an independant given their customer base.
While operationally the company made seriously strides, a lot of their success hinged on The Dark Knight franchise. First quarter there will be more screens to monetize this re-release, but it is still in doubt whether they will be able to show a profit until perhaps the end of 2009. Disney's first film comes out then.
Imax does have competition although theoretically not from home based systems for at least the next 2-3 years. I believe the economic downturn somewhat favors them as a $14 Imax experience is still a lot less than a professional ball game.
I'm buying a few more shares as whatever the actual result, low expectations are already priced into this stock, and nobody seems to see the bright side....